As Bergos´ Chief Investment Officer, Till Christian Budelmann regularly comments on events on the international capital markets and examines them in the context of economic and political trends. Since 2004, Budelmann has been responsible for various investment strategies and sits on the bank’s Investment Committee. He has been Managing Director since 2013.
Budelmann is a regular contributer to our new Podcast Bergos Now
December 2021 │ Market Commentary: Global Outlook – Equities remain the key performance driver in 2022
After an exceptionally good year for investors in 2021, Till Christian Budelmann, Chief Investment Officer at the Swiss private bank Bergos, takes a constructive view of the new year, although he anticipates more modest investment returns overall. While bond yields can be expected to rise, equities are still the more attractive asset class for now. However, it will become more difficult to generate high returns from equities. Active management, which steers capital to the right regions, sectors and sub-segments, will be more important in 2022. For example, the IT sector as a whole will no longer be among the structural winners in the United States.(…)
October 2021 │Market Commentary: Central banks with remarkable inflation tolerance
In addition to political uncertainty factors, macroeconomic risks can no longer be ignored. In particular, inflation and the reaction of central banks bear watching. Although Till Christian Budelmann, Chief Investment Officer at the Swiss private bank Bergos, is indeed fearful of an overly carefree approach, he does not see excessive stagflation risks. Despite higher bond yields, equities are still the more attractive asset class. Besides US equities, the prospects for Japanese stocks are especially good.(…)
October 2021 │ Private Banking Magazin Podcast “Das grosse Bild“
Till Christian Budelmann is once again a guest on “DAS GROSSE BILD”, a podcast series by “Private Banking Magazin” where portfolio managers, family officers and institutional investors discuss the most important questions related to large and complex assets. Our CIO talks with host Christian Hammes for almost an hour about the Fed, Biden, Trump, Corona and many other topics. This podcast is only available in German.
August 2021 │ Market Commentary: The United States is still the pacesetter of the global economy and equity markets
By the end of the year, the global economy will have made up the losses caused by the measures taken to combat the coronavirus. The US economy in particular has proven to be impressively resilient, but Europe’s economy is also on the mend. “The relative attractiveness of equity markets has risen again, the US market remains our favourite”, said Till Christian Budelmann, Chief Investment Officer of the Swiss private bank Bergos. At a certain point, the upcoming tapering of the US Federal Reserve could prove to be a disruptive factor.(…)
June 2021 │ Market Commentary: STRONG ECONOMIC RECOVERY, BUT SUMMER OF CONSOLIDATION FOR THE MARKETS?
The global economic recovery is hitting on all cylinders. “However, the global equity market in its function as a huge discounting mechanism has already anticipated much in the way of future positive developments”, said Till Christian Budelmann, Chief Investment Officer at the Swiss private bank Bergos. Despite excellent macroeconomic and microeconomic numbers, he therefore expects a volatile sideways movement in the equity markets – at least until more clarity emerges regarding the trend of inflation. Long-term bond yields will probably rise further in the near term. (…)
March 2021 │ Market Commentary: Higher bond yields in line with economic recovery
Bond yields have increased dramatically in recent weeks, albeit from a very low level. However, Till Christian Budelmann, Chief Investment Officer at the private Swiss bank Bergos, does not see any grounds for departing from his optimistic economic outlook for 2021. On the contrary, he feels the rise confirms his optimism and does not see any risk for the economy from higher financing costs. Although the relative attractiveness of equities over bonds has fallen sharply compared with 2020, it is still somewhat higher than the historical average. (…)
February 2021 │Global Equity Markets: Earnings growth is the big fundamental question mark in 2021
Despite the corona crisis, equity markets are soaring again after the temporary slump in the spring of 2020. For the rally to continue, companies will now need to deliver earnings in 2021, said Till Budelmann, Chief Investment Officer at the Swiss private bank Bergos. And he believes they will be able to do that. He anticipates a strong recovery, globally and especially in the United States, at the level of both the overall economy and individual companies. (…)
December 2020 │ Global Outlook 2021: Equities remain the most important source of return in a portfolio
According to Capital Market Strategist Till Budelmann of the Swiss private bank Bergos Berenberg, a more market-friendly US trade policy, the breakthrough in corona vaccines, expansive central bank policies, and a significant recovery of the global economy will provide a beneficial environment for markets in 2021. The focus remains on equities, with the US and Asia’s emerging markets appearing most promising. In addition to gold as a hedge and bonds as a diversifier, illiquid investments can be a useful addition to the portfolio. Despite all the confidence, one should still keep an eye on investor sentiment as a possible contrarion indicator. (…)
November 2020 │ Bergos Berenberg market commentaries on the us elections
8 Nov
By now, all major American media institutions have announced Joe Biden as “President-Elect”. As matters stand, he will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States on January 20, 2021. An assessment of what an incumbent Joe Biden will mean for the economy was given by our Capital Market Strategist Till C. Budelmann last Friday in our podcast Bergos NOW.
5 Nov
The final election outcome has yet to be confirmed and a lot of political noise can be expected until then. However, we are already assuming a Biden Presidency and a Republican majority in the Senate at this stage. The former should provide for a more conventional foreign and trade policy. The latter should prevent dramatic shifts in tax and spending policies. From a market perspective, both would be fundamentally positive.
4 Nov
As of this publication, neither the winner of the Presidential race nor the majority in the Senate can be reliably projected by any of the major American media institutions. So far, it is only certain that the Democrats have defended their majority in the House of Representatives. The prediction markets show equal probabilities of winning for both candidates. The heavily discussed polling error has turned in Trumps favour. (…)
October 2020 │ Bergos’ US election scenarios and their implications for capital markets
On November 3, the 59th US presidential election will take place in the United States of America. In addition to the president, a new House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be elected. There are several different outcome-scenarios that this election could result in and their respective impact on capital markets would differ quite a bit. We quantify the probabilities for these scenarios and asses their consequences for global financial markets and individual market segments. (…)
October 2020 │ Private Banking Magazin Podcast “Das grosse Bild“
Till Christian Budelmann speaks to “Das grosse Bild”, a podcast series by “Private Banking Magazin” which – with portfolio managers, analysts, family officers and lawyers – explores the most important questions relating to large and complex assets. This Podcast is only published in German.
October 2020 │ Q4 Market Commentary
Following a strong recovery in the second quarter, global equity markets have mostly moved sideways recently. Only the US equity market made further gains on a local-currency basis. Markets were supported by encouraging macro numbers, a much better-than-expected corporate reporting season, and progress made on a Covid-19 vaccination. Monetary and fiscal policies have also continued to be supportive. (…)
On November 3, the President, a new House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be elected in the United States. With the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a new topic moves into the focus of the election campaign. It is expected that the upcoming Presidential elections will lead to increased volatility in capital markets. (…)
September 2020 │US elections and concerns about tighter Covid-19 restrictions to cause volatile sideways markets
Both the stock market and the economy are recovering more quickly in the United States than in Europe. The US consumer as the engine of the global economy is holding up well. Nevertheless, the possibility of more stringent Covid-19 measures remains a major risk for markets. Moreover, the upcoming Presidential election in the United States is likely to result in increased volatility over the coming weeks. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has brought a new issue to the forefront of the election campaign. (…)
July 2020 │ Q3 Market Commentary
The equity market has had an impressive recovery over the second quarter. Given the various risks, Till Christian Budelmann, the capital market strategist of the Swiss private bank Bergos Berenberg, has been anticipating a volatile sideways trend until autumn for a few weeks now. In this article, he examines these risks that are expected to move markets over the next few weeks and months. (…)
June 2020 │US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS POSE THE GREATEST RISK FOR EQUITY MARKETS
Social unrest, the coronavirus pandemic, and enduring tensions between the United States and China: The global economy and capital markets are exposed to many risks. However, Till Budelmann, the Capital Markets Strategist of the Swiss private bank Bergos Berenberg, believes that the upcoming US Presidential elections, which promise to be a very close race, will be the biggest issue in the second half of the year. The election outcome will be highly relevant for the future course of the US economy and therefore also for the rest of the world. (…)
May 2020 │Manoeuvring the crisis: US large caps plus gold
Before the global economy can breathe easy again, the air will first become even thinner. That being said, Bergos Berenberg’s capital market strategist Till Budelmann is somewhat more optimistic about 2021. This optimism seems to have already become a reality in markets. He still prefers US equities. The economy there has often proved to be better at recovering from a downturn. Moreover, the sectors that have benefitted the most from the crisis are strongly represented there. A gold overweight is a natural hedge against the great uncertainty surrounding the expected recovery. (…)
April 2020 │Q2 Market Commentary
“In this environment, we currently prefer a neutral positioning for equities because the different areas of our analysis balance each other out: The extremely poor macro and technical picture is offset by attractive valuations and a cautious sentiment (as a contra indicator). And within the asset class, we continue to expect some relative strength of US equities compared to the rest of the world. Markets are likely to remain volatile for the foreseeable future and further setbacks cannot be ruled out during this phase of the pandemic. However, for long-term investors this may not be a bad time to start adding some equity risk. In times of market turmoil, it is important for investors not to panic but to keep calm. During these weeks one well-known quote from Warren Buffett comes to mind: Four or five times during their lifetimes, investors will see incredible opportunities in equity markets and they have to have the mental fortitude to jump in when most are jumping out.” (…)
March 2020 │Keep calm in turbulent times
The global economy has been massively weakened by the extremely unpredictable impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19). This and the plunge in the oil price a week ago has led to market turmoil of almost unprecedented levels recently. In his baseline scenario, Till Christian Budelmann, our capital market strategist, only expects an economic recovery in the second half of the year, which would then at least not be further disrupted by the risk of an anti-market US presidential candidate from the democratic party. Compared to the bond market, equities appear relatively attractive – even if one assumes a similar earnings decline as in the last financial crisis of 2008. In retrospect, the high level of uncertainty could prove to be a good opportunity to position oneself rationally and at a reasonable price in long-term, future-oriented market areas. And Gold could serve as a hedge to a balanced portfolio. (…)
March 2020 │ Market commentary after the latest sell-off
Till Christian Budelmann on our positioning after the combination of virus induced economic weakness and the oil price shock has led to a significant decline in equity prices: “As a response, our economists have cut some of their key economic forecasts even further. We now forecast that the recession in Italy and Germany will be deeper than anticipated. But we maintain our view that economic activity should start to rebound by the end of the second quarter or at the beginning of the third quarter as the outlook for the epidemic becomes clearer (our base case). However, the risks are rising that the virus-related hit to growth may turn out to be even more protracted. On the equity side, we hold on to our neutral positioning as we see a balance between a deteriorated macroeconomic and technical picture on the one hand and attractive cross-asset valuations and extremely negative investor sentiment (a contrarian indicator) on the other. With regard to fixed income, we remain long duration for USD investments. And on the alternative investments side, we have reduced our crude oil positioning and have increased our Gold position even further.” (…)
March 2020 │ Update on the coronavirus (COVID-19)
Till Christian Budelmann, our capital market strategist, sees three possible scenarios for the economy and markets going forward: “Scenario A (containment) implies that the outbreak will be more or less contained by late March/early April, limiting the disruption mainly to the first quarter. As of today, this scenario seems to be more than fully priced by markets. Scenario B (escalation) suggests that new cases continue to rise around the world culminating by late May/early June and that the disruption to economic activity continues until the end of the second quarter. This scenario should be more or less priced by markets by now and certain segments already appear attractive under these assumptions. In a third Scenario (C – massive escalation), the virus continues to spread into the third and maybe even the fourth quarter of this year, causing disruption until year end and possibly triggering a global recession – a scenario that is certainly not priced by markets today. We consider scenario B to be most realistic at this point in time.” (…)
February 2020 │ Market commentary on the coronavirus (COVID-19)
Till Christian Budelmann, our capital markets strategist, comments on the coronavirus, its impact on markets and our current positioning: “Of course, we cannot forecast how the coronavirus will develop and we certainly have to brace ourselves for some further bad news but so far, we do not see the epidemic as a reason to fundamentally change our long-term view. Although the risks of a more severe disruption to economic activity have increased, the COVID-19 impact will hopefully be, albeit significant, mostly temporary. The current correction could therefore create opportunities to add risk eventually as we do not expect a deep recession in 2020, especially in the US.” (…)
January 2020 │ Outlook 2020: Equities still have potential worldwide, US bull market continues
The global economy has not been all that rosy for some time now, but a global recession is not expected in 2020 either. The global stock market continues to benefit from a fairly good fundamental basis and the technical view also gives hope for a further upside. Equity valuations remain promising compared with bonds – and corporate earnings should also pick up again this year. As in previous years, the US equity market offers the greatest opportunities for investors in 2020, but the US election campaign could turn out to be the biggest risk for global markets. (…)
October 2019 │ Private Banking Magazin Podcast “Das grosse Bild“
Till Christian Budelmann speaks to “Das grosse Bild”, a podcast series by “Private Banking Magazin” which – with portfolio managers, analysts, family officers and lawyers – explores the most important questions relating to large and complex assets. Our capital market strategist talks to Christian Hammes about the “most hated bull market in history”, the president’s ways of getting the US out of its double deficit, and value, growth and tech stocks, and thus the main reason why many European investors are invested in the US.
We hope you enjoy listening!
September 2019 │ Stock markets defy political stress
The uncertainty about the capital markets has increased. Political issues from around the world are influencing investors’ investment decisions. However, only a few of them are really structurally important, says Till Christian Budelmann, the capital market strategist at the Swiss private bank Bergos Berenberg. He sees the markets as being particularly vulnerable with regard to the trade war, the upcoming US elections and, in Europe, the Brexit crisis. A low relative valuation vs. bonds and a defensive positioning of investors, however, give equities a certain resilience. (…)
June 2019 │ Equities are currently not expensive
Compared to the historical average, global equities are currently moderately valued and even appear to be downright cheap compared to bonds. Till Christian Budelmann, capital market strategist at the Swiss private bank Bergos Berenberg AG, examines the current valuations using a forward P/E approach.
Are equities globally overvalued or undervalued? What is the situation in the regions of the world in this context? And what is the picture for the individual sectors? Since 2004, we have taken a uniform approach to market valuations and are currently reaching the following conclusion: Despite the upward trend in 2019 to date, equities continue to be valued more favorably on a global basis. (…)
May 2019 │ US election could become a nightmare for the capital markets
“The US presidential elections are still a good one and a half years away, but they may also have an impact on the capital markets in the run-up to them. Especially if the USA, known for its freedom and competition, were to move structurally in the direction of socialism, global stock markets would not be spared,” says Till Christian Budelmann, capital market strategist at the Swiss private bank Bergos Berenberg. He delivers an economic policy appraisal of those candidates with the best chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination, and explains why, from the standpoint of equity markets, Joe Biden would give him fewer sleepless nights than Bernie Sanders. (…)
March 2019 │ Ten years of US bull market, and no end in sight
Since the financial crisis, the US stock market has been much more stable than the European stock markets. It has been in a bull market for ten years now. Till Christian Budelmann, capital market strategist at Bergos Berenberg, which has recently separated from the Berenberg Group and established itself as an independent Swiss private bank with new partners, sees a good chance that the upward trend will continue this year. He is optimistic about the probable end of the cycle of interest rate hikes, but also about the moderate share valuations, the market breadth of performance and the defensive positioning of investors. He sees politics as the biggest risk factor. In addition to the trade conflict with China, the preparations for the presidential elections in autumn 2020 could weigh on the stock market. (…)